The Bears are really playing hardball with their star RB and their latest tact (at least in our opinion) involved leaking to the press that they are concerned about the long term health of Forte’s knee.  The concerns about the wear and tear on Forte, who was used heavily at Tulane even before the Bears made him a workhorse NFL back, and a possibly arthritic condition follow the signing of another very talented back in Michael Bush, and the conversion to a more pass heavy offense.

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Matt Forte himself has weighed in by tweeting a picture of himself running uphill with a 100lb sled in tow.

The CBS guys have Forte ranked 10th (Dave Richard) and 11th Jamey Eisenberg (11th) respectively in their 2012 RB rankings. 

Back when the Bears signed Michael Bush, Christopher Harris of ESPN, had reported his views that Forte was pushed out of the first round of fantasy drafts.  That was before the arrival of Marshall and more contract hardball.

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This is just posturing.  It’s not the noise the Bears are making about health concerns that Forte owners should be concerned about, that’s just a negotiating tactic.  As a matter of fact, I was of the thinking that the Bears were going to try to trade Forte before they tried this new tact, but considering the injury route is a double edged sword because it may scare teams off.  What is much more concerning to us is the new offense that is being installed that will mimic the offense that Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall enjoyed success with in Denver.  In that offense the RB is marginalized.

We believe Forte owners should wait until he signs to shop him.  None of this bodes well and we are looking at him more as a high end RB#2 that a RB#1.

Andy Reid acknowledged that the Eagles may have overused their star RB last season.  McCoy tallied 321 touches over 15 games while backup Deion Lewis only managed to accumulate 23 rushes and 1 reception.  The Eagles added Bryce Brown in the draft and Chris Polk as an undrafted free agent to compete for roster spots.

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McCoy owners shouldn’t place too much stock in this announcement from Andy Reid.  Saying that McCoy will get more rest and actually taking him off the field in the heat of competition are two different things.  Chris Polk could have been a 3rd round pick if it weren’t for rumors of a serious shoulder situation and apparently false rumors of degenerative hip disorder.  The Eagles may have lucked out landing him.  We don’t think Bryce Brown will make the active roster.  He has character issues and wasn’t able to handle the pressure or workload in college, so we can’t place a lot of faith in him on the pro level.

McCoy may see one to three fewer touches in some games, but he’s still a top five fantasy running back in our estimation.  He’s going to have weeks where he explodes and he very rarely disappears in games.  We can see Chris Polk making an impact, however, and that could manifest in the Eagles having a more balanced offense.  Michael Vick showed less consistency and made a lot more poor decisions with the ball than he had in 2010.  The Eagles ran the ball well and  have a ridiculously unbalanced offense under Andy Reid, we could see more balance finally, but still pass heavy.

The Browns acted aggressively on draft day to shore up the RB position by trading up to snag a three down back that many experts believe is the best backfield prospect to enter the league since Adrian Peterson.  Trent Richardson should have no problem in beating out the disappointing Montario Hardesty and joining fellow rookie Brandon Weeden as day one starters.

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Jason and Justin Sablich of the 5th Down Blog say that Richardson will probably go off redraft boards in the third round of most leagues.

Todd Latzke of FFToolbox believes that Trent Richardson is set up for success for the long run and should be the first rookie off fantasy draft boards and that he will be a top 15 RB in 2012.

It’s hard to find anything but ultra high praise when it comes to Richardson but Eric Mack of SI does question how great he can be if he backed up Mark Ingram for two years.

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While the Browns will have a rookie QB, lack of talent at receiver, and two games a year against the Steelers and Ravens defense, you have to like the young man from a fantasy perspective.  He is a three down back who won’t have to leave the field on third down and will factor into the passing game.  The Browns are going to have to rely heavily on he running game and should approach a 50/50 run/pass split.  As long as Richardson can stay healthy he should see 300 touches and be a mid to low end RB#2 right off the bat.

Richardson could fare even better if  Brandon Weeden can play with maturity early on.  The lack of passing game could allow defenses to key on Richardson and regardless of how talented the rookie is, eight NFL players in the box is too much to overcome.  Greg Little has to solve his issues with drops and the Browns have to look to add more talent at the wide receiver position.  The Browns ranked 23rd in yards per carry in 2011, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they have a weak run blocking offensive line.  As a unit he Browns offensive line ranked 2nd in stuff percentage and 13th in Power Success according to FootballOutsiders.com.

Justin Blackmon landed in Jacksonville (Jags league worst pass offense also gets a boost with offseason signing of Laurent Robinson) – unfortunately Blaine Gabbert is still under center. Michael Floyd joined fellow Minnesotan Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona and the two should flourish in the desert if Kevin Kolb can avoid the injury bug.

Kendall Wright will be manning the slot for Tennessee with Kenny Britt splitting out wide provided he can avoid yet another suspension for being a dumb ass. One of the surprise picks of the night occurred when the 49ers rolled the dice on Illinois AJ Jenkins at pick #30 (most had a late 2nd round grade on). Perhaps Stephen Hill’s questionable route running and limited experience in Ga Tech’s run heavy offense spooked Harbaugh. San Fran’s 29th ranked passing offense has received a dramatic overhaul with the additions of Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. Alex Smith will have no shortage of weapons as he looks to justify his 3-year $24 million contract extension

We expect to see as many as 10 more WR go off the board by the end of tonight once rounds 2 and 3 are completed. Stephen Hill (Ga Tech) and Reuben Randle (LSU) were considered potential first rounders and will be hot commodities when round 2 kicks off . The Rams and Colts own the first two picks of the round and have glaring needs at the WR position.  

CLICK HERE to see the best remaining WR prospects on the board and our analysis on which NFL teams should place a high priority on adding at least one WR to their roster via the draft.

As for fantasy relevance – Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin will enter the 2012 season as starters and Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden could play their way into the starting lineup depending on where they land.

Trent Richardson is viewed by some as the best RB prospect since AP went #7 overall to Minnesota in 2007. T-Rich should hear his name called among the top 5 picks. There is a significant drop off following Richardson but Boise’s Doug Martin, Va Tech’s David Wilson and possibly Miami’s Lamar Miller should all be selected in round 2 as complimentary backs.

This draft class is viewed as one of the deepest in recent memory at WR (which is why Minnesota should not even entertain Blackmon at #3 – but as a Vikings fan I know to expect the illogical. We could see as many as 4 WRs come off the board (Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Stephen Hill and Kendall Wright). When projecting out rounds 2/3 there could be as many as 15 WRs off the board by the end day 2.

Today we present the latest and greatest from SI’s Peter King who always has his ear to the pavement when it comes to the NFL Rumor Mill. King’s top 10 is similar to most but he projects just three WRs going in round 1 (Blackmon to St Louis, Michael Floyd to Carolina and Kendall Wright (owner of 16% body fat) to Chicago. Stephen Hill is labeled as one of the better vertical threats in this class but his limited experience in Ga Tech’s run oriented offense could make him a solid pick in the first half of round 2 (although we think Houston at #26 and San Fran at #30 will get Hill a long look).

King also sees 4 signal callers coming off the board in round 1 with Tannehill going at 8 to Miami and grandpa Weeden going to Cleveland at #22. We just don’t see Weeden as a first round value and feel that Cleveland or Kansas City using their 2nd rounder on the Okie State soon to be 29 year old QB is more likely.

Mike Wallace is one of the most productive receivers in the game, but the Pittsburgh Steelers don’t seem to want to pay him as such.  Their gamble of slapping Wallace with a first round tender amounted to basically challenging a team with a late first round slot to sign the star WR, but teams were reportedly more scared of his astronomical contract/salary demands than the first pick they would have to surrender for signing him.

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Mike Wallace wants Larry Fitzgerald money and  he’s not in that class.  He is a very talented, productive receiver who would be a number one on most teams, but he’s a notch below the Fitzgerald/Megatron/Andre Johnson level and we don’t see a team paying him that kind of money.  This means that he will ultimately have to sign the restricted $2.7 million tender from the Steelers or go the holdout route.  Either way the Steelers hold the cards this year and have the trump card of the franchise tag for next year as well.  A sign and trade is not completely out of question, but as long as Wallace demands A level pay no team is going to touch him.  And, the Redskins give ridiculous money to likes of Pierre Garcon didn’t help.

Wallace is a low end fantasy football WR#1 with less value in PPR leagues.  He’s a fourth round fantasy option as long as be doesn’t hold out

Kendall Wright has been perceived a first round talent for a long time, even after a poor showing at the NFL combine.  That public perception may be very different from that of the NFL scouts, some of which reportedly see him as a third round WR according to ProFootballWeekly.

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Most concerning says Nolan Nawrocki of ProFootballWeekly is his pathetic four bench presses at his pro day and his 16.1% body fat.  Not only does it show a lack of work ethic, but small receivers can sometimes overcome their lack of height with superior speed, speed, and conditioning, things Wright is lacking in according to raw numbers.

Meanwhile, our own Rob Warner says Georgia Tech’s Steven Hill is a first round talent, maybe he’s the third and last WR taken in the first round.

Rotoworld quotes an unnamed NFL scout who says that Wright grades lower than Randall Cobb who lasted into the second round.

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I’ve made my opinion that spending a first round pick on a small receiver is unwise.  That’s been countered by arguments point to Steve Smith and Desean Jackson (Smith is a valid point, but Jackson in our opinion is still not a first round talent when you take into account he is one dimensional with attitude issues) and yes, there are outliers, but in general a guy like Steven Hill has a better shot, because of his physical stature and speed, than a small WR like Wright.

We wouldn’t invest a first round pick in Wright and it’s looking like NFL teams aren’t willing to either.  Now, it is the time of year for deception and misdirection, so you have to consider that.  We just don’t like Wright that much and question whether he will translate to the pros where big corners will jam him.

We weren’t fans of the Lions selection of Best in first round of the 2010 draft.  Best came into the league with an injury history and it didn’t take long for him to begin to get dinged in the big leagues.   Concussions are crazy things and Best now seems susceptible to repeat incidents.  The fact that he is still not completely cleared for contact should be very concerning in redraft and dynasty leagues.

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The CBS take is that Best is worth holding onto and the he could be the No. 1 RB in Detroit but more than likely Mikel Leshoure will be the RB on first and second down and Best will be the third down/change of pace back.  They believe his probably a RB#3 in standard leagues and RB#2 in PPR.

Rotowire says that the backfield mess in Detroit with Best’s injuries and Leshoures legal issues could mean that RB becomes a high priority in the draft for the Lions.\

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Best proved in 2010 that he can be an effective pass catcher out of the backfield and when healthy in 2011 he looked better carrying the ball.  Ultimately we see him as CBS does; as a third down, change of pace back and that is why we weren’t in favor of spending a first round pick on him in 2010.  He comes with a heavy injury risk and, in our opinion, limited upside.   The odds of him remaining healthy over an entire season are long and the odds of a larger back dominating the carries are high.

Unless he looks really healthy and impressive in camp draft him as a low end RB#3 in PPR leagues if he proves to be healthy in camp.